ASSIGNMENT : Scenario Plan
Assignment 2: Scenario Plan
Aim: This assignment aims to assess ULOs 2, 3, and 4 for the unit of study.
Nature of assessment: Individual task
Word limit: 3,000 words (+/– 10%)
Scenario planning is a structured way to consider and anticipate the future. In broad terms, scenario planning involves determining and visualising probable future conditions or events, their likely consequences or effects, and how to respond to, or benefit from, them. Therefore, scenario planning about what ‘might’ happen in the future, rather than what will happen – essentially, a road map from the present to the future. There are several important benefits of scenario planning, including thinking creatively and forward-looking, as well as questioning assumptions about the future and the drivers and forces that influence a specific sector of activity.
The aim of this assignment is to assess your ability to apply the scenario planning framework to an emerging trend.
Step 1: Choose a Trend
Select and conduct research into one of the following trends.
- The Social Economy
- The Post-Digital Era
- The Work/Life Revolution
Step 2: Apply Scenario Planning
Apply the scenario planning framework to the selected trend using the below nine stages (see the recommended text for detailed scenario planning stage descriptions):
- Determining the question
- External drivers
- Ranking and ranging
- Naming and framing
- Logic and narrative
- Distillation and dialogue
- Validation and refinement
- Interpretation and implementation
For example, the first stage is ‘Determining the Question’, the framing of which is critical to the integrity and accuracy of the scenario. Here, you should follow a ‘what if ’ approach to keep your scenario plan focused and reflective of the core question being asked. Examples from the recommended text include:
- ‘What if the temperature of the planet were to rise by one degree per century?’
- ‘What if one of our competitors were to create an engine that ran on electricity rather than petrol?’
- ‘What if consumers only bought products that were proven to be sustainable?’
As you develop your scenarios, keep in mind that a good set will contain two to five different possible future conditions or events. While the recommended text suggests that three scenarios is the ideal number, we recommend working with four scenarios – having more than this tends to make it more difficult to distinguish the differences between them (especially within the scope of this assignment!), while having only three scenarios tends to preference the most moderate or apparently plausible. Each scenario should contain enough detail to assess the likelihood of success or failure of the different strategic options. Also carefully consider and map out how each scenario is likely to change the social, cultural, ethical and environmental conditions of people’s lives.
Step 3: Develop Scenario Plan
Your assignment should be presented in report format and include numbered sections and headings, such as those below. The report must also be presented in a professional manner in terms of the font size, spacing, margins, design, and referencing.
- Summarise key points from your assignment
- Contains 200–250 words
- Is NOT an overview of the conclusion of your report
Table of contents
- Structure and scope of report
- Scenario planning definition and framework, including the benefits of scenario planning.
- Trend description
Main Body Headings
- Use the nine stages of the scenario planning framework as a guide.
- Summarise your report, including any implications from your scenarios (e.g. what does it mean for the future of business and/ or marketing?). NOTE: You should not present any new information in this section of your report.
References (excl. from the word count)
- Use the Harvard system of referencing (see details available on the unit Canvas page).
- Cite at least 5 academic journal articles (8 to 10 recommended for an HD) with high relevance to the brief/topic.
- You should also cite any other relevant sources (websites, newspaper articles, etc.).
- Be sure to properly acknowledge all references, including sources of any images used.
Step 4: Submit on Time!